February 27, 2024

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Forecast Model to Potentially Warn About Lahar Floods in Indonesia

Indonesia Short Term Rain Forecast Model

A Civil Engineering Doctoral Program student from the Gadjah Mada University has developed a short-term rain forecast model, which is based on radar rain using the High-Resolution Pixel-based QPN method that utilises PLKOF or HPLK models.

According to a recent press release, the research was centred on the slopes of Mount Merapi, which has unique topographic and climate characteristics.

Information on the short-term rainfall spatial distribution, obtained through the forecasting process, is very much needed for applications that are associated with lahar flood mitigation efforts.

When done with high accuracy, it will provide results that potentially be significant contribution to the development of the lahar flood warning system.

Background

Heavy rains can transport sediment deposits on Mount Merapi, through surface runoff, to cold lava.

The deposits will travel quickly in large quantities, which may cause floods that will have affect the environment along its path.

Lava flow, according to the researcher, can occur if triggered by rain that has a specific intensity. Findings from studies show that the minimum threshold of lava trigger is a rainfall intensity of 9 mm/hour.

So far, the Merapi Multiparameter (MP) X-band radar device, which was made possible through a collaboration program between the Japanese and Indonesian governments, had only been used for monitoring rain data.

As such, the development of a short-term rain forecasting model using it is very timely and relevant.

About the Initiative

Although the use of MP X-band radar data can provide significant benefits in the short-term rain forecasting model, there should still be an evaluation and correction of radar rain value to surface rain.

Errors may still possibly occur as it is dependent on the estimated rainfall value of the radar.

There are three main issues to be considered. These are:

  1. The characteristics of the short duration rain in the Mount Merapi region
  2. The suitability of the radar rain value to surface rain
  3. The form of an appropriate forecasting model for the characteristics of the mountainous region with distinctive characteristics

The development of HPLK’s short-term rain forecasting model has been successfully completed. Meanwhile, the algorithm used for tracking rain movements with the PLKOF method showed good results, especially for small displacements.

The short-term rain forecasting model generated from this study has the potential to be applied to applications that are related to the warning of lahar floods in the Mount Merapi region.

However, there are still improvements that need to be addressed before the model could actually be used for practical purposes.

Moreover, in order for the model to be applied to other regions, there needs to be a consideration of various factors such as the similarity of regional characteristics and the similarity of radar rain data characteristics.

PARTNER

Qlik’s vision is a data-literate world, where everyone can use data and analytics to improve decision-making and solve their most challenging problems. A private company, Qlik offers real-time data integration and analytics solutions, powered by Qlik Cloud, to close the gaps between data, insights and action. By transforming data into Active Intelligence, businesses can drive better decisions, improve revenue and profitability, and optimize customer relationships. Qlik serves more than 38,000 active customers in over 100 countries.

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CTC Global Singapore, a premier end-to-end IT solutions provider, is a fully owned subsidiary of ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation (CTC) and ITOCHU Corporation.

Since 1972, CTC has established itself as one of the country’s top IT solutions providers. With 50 years of experience, headed by an experienced management team and staffed by over 200 qualified IT professionals, we support organizations with integrated IT solutions expertise in Autonomous IT, Cyber Security, Digital Transformation, Enterprise Cloud Infrastructure, Workplace Modernization and Professional Services.

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Planview has one mission: to build the future of connected work. Our solutions enable organizations to connect the business from ideas to impact, empowering companies to accelerate the achievement of what matters most. Planview’s full spectrum of Portfolio Management and Work Management solutions creates an organizational focus on the strategic outcomes that matter and empowers teams to deliver their best work, no matter how they work. The comprehensive Planview platform and enterprise success model enables customers to deliver innovative, competitive products, services, and customer experiences. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, with locations around the world, Planview has more than 1,300 employees supporting 4,500 customers and 2.6 million users worldwide. For more information, visit www.planview.com.

SUPPORTING ORGANISATION

SIRIM is a premier industrial research and technology organisation in Malaysia, wholly-owned by the Minister​ of Finance Incorporated. With over forty years of experience and expertise, SIRIM is mandated as the machinery for research and technology development, and the national champion of quality. SIRIM has always played a major role in the development of the country’s private sector. By tapping into our expertise and knowledge base, we focus on developing new technologies and improvements in the manufacturing, technology and services sectors. We nurture Small Medium Enterprises (SME) growth with solutions for technology penetration and upgrading, making it an ideal technology partner for SMEs.

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HashiCorp provides infrastructure automation software for multi-cloud environments, enabling enterprises to unlock a common cloud operating model to provision, secure, connect, and run any application on any infrastructure. HashiCorp tools allow organizations to deliver applications faster by helping enterprises transition from manual processes and ITIL practices to self-service automation and DevOps practices. 

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IBM is a leading global hybrid cloud and AI, and business services provider. We help clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Nearly 3,000 government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications and healthcare rely on IBM’s hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to affect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently and securely. IBM’s breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and business services deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM’s legendary commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity and service.

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