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The future of AI to predict earthquakes in New Zealand

Seven years after Christchurch experienced two destructive earthquakes, the city is kept shaking by more than 20,000 smaller earthquakes and aftershocks.

Although nobody can predict when or where the next big quake will happen in New Zealand, the most accurate predictor of where post-quake tremors are likely to happen seems to be a new artificial intelligence (AI) project, according to a recent report.

Aftershocks are called such, even if they still feel like earthquakes and occur several years after an initial earthquake, because they are related to the initial event.

Additional physical damage can be caused by these aftershocks if they are large enough. But more than that, the effect of constantly living in stress is equally damaging for the people.

The Canterbury District Health Board has reported that one in five Christchurch residents are stressed most, if not all, of the time from the anxiety caused by the aftershocks, ongoing construction, and loss of facilities.

Several long-term health effects can be attributed to these stresses. Quake-affected residents are twice as likely to be addicted to smoking and 40% more likely to develop mental health conditions such as major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.

With the residents not knowing when or where the next aftershock will happen, the people are always on high alert.

Ideally, residents want to know three things about an upcoming aftershock. The first is when it will happen, the second is where and the third is how big it will be.

Currently, researchers use empirical laws to help predict when and how big, but the location of an aftershock has proved to be difficult to determine.

A new AI based system could help with the where question and create more accurate predictions when it comes to aftershocks.

Deep learning is a facet of AI being used in the research. It is a more advanced form of machine learning where computers can learn from data sets in order to help them solve new problems that they have not been programmed to address.

Deep learning allows many possible results to be seen at once and creates a complex map connecting different factors.

More than 131,000 pairs of earthquake as well as aftershock readings using data taken from 199 real earthquakes were looked into in the study.

After which, the deep learning networks were asked to predict the activity of 30,000 different pairs to test its accuracy.

This deep learning method was compared to what is currently being used to predict earthquakes, the Coulomb failure stress change model.

Compared to the standard method having 58% accuracy in predicting aftershocks, the deep learning method was accurate 85% of the time when based on a grid of 5 square kilometres.

In addition to the increased computing power, the researchers also added a new calculation into the prediction model called the von Mises yield criterion.

Although this is a standard model used in materials engineering that helps to predict when a material will break under stress, it has not been used much when it comes to modelling earthquakes.

More work needs to be done before the system can be deployed as it is still taking too long to process the data in real time.

Moreover, it only works on aftershocks with static stress and not dynamic stress.

However, it showed promise when it is added to AI systems that are already in existence. These existing AI systems already serve specific purposes.

One checks multiple databases to guess which residents might have disabilities and need help with evacuation. Another assesses building data, elevation and soil types to predict earthquake damage to buildings.

The future of AI may be key to helping New Zealanders feel safer on their shaky land.

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Qlik’s vision is a data-literate world, where everyone can use data and analytics to improve decision-making and solve their most challenging problems. A private company, Qlik offers real-time data integration and analytics solutions, powered by Qlik Cloud, to close the gaps between data, insights and action. By transforming data into Active Intelligence, businesses can drive better decisions, improve revenue and profitability, and optimize customer relationships. Qlik serves more than 38,000 active customers in over 100 countries.

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CTC Global Singapore, a premier end-to-end IT solutions provider, is a fully owned subsidiary of ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation (CTC) and ITOCHU Corporation.

Since 1972, CTC has established itself as one of the country’s top IT solutions providers. With 50 years of experience, headed by an experienced management team and staffed by over 200 qualified IT professionals, we support organizations with integrated IT solutions expertise in Autonomous IT, Cyber Security, Digital Transformation, Enterprise Cloud Infrastructure, Workplace Modernization and Professional Services.

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Planview has one mission: to build the future of connected work. Our solutions enable organizations to connect the business from ideas to impact, empowering companies to accelerate the achievement of what matters most. Planview’s full spectrum of Portfolio Management and Work Management solutions creates an organizational focus on the strategic outcomes that matter and empowers teams to deliver their best work, no matter how they work. The comprehensive Planview platform and enterprise success model enables customers to deliver innovative, competitive products, services, and customer experiences. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, with locations around the world, Planview has more than 1,300 employees supporting 4,500 customers and 2.6 million users worldwide. For more information, visit www.planview.com.

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SIRIM is a premier industrial research and technology organisation in Malaysia, wholly-owned by the Minister​ of Finance Incorporated. With over forty years of experience and expertise, SIRIM is mandated as the machinery for research and technology development, and the national champion of quality. SIRIM has always played a major role in the development of the country’s private sector. By tapping into our expertise and knowledge base, we focus on developing new technologies and improvements in the manufacturing, technology and services sectors. We nurture Small Medium Enterprises (SME) growth with solutions for technology penetration and upgrading, making it an ideal technology partner for SMEs.

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HashiCorp provides infrastructure automation software for multi-cloud environments, enabling enterprises to unlock a common cloud operating model to provision, secure, connect, and run any application on any infrastructure. HashiCorp tools allow organizations to deliver applications faster by helping enterprises transition from manual processes and ITIL practices to self-service automation and DevOps practices. 

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IBM is a leading global hybrid cloud and AI, and business services provider. We help clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Nearly 3,000 government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications and healthcare rely on IBM’s hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to affect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently and securely. IBM’s breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and business services deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM’s legendary commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity and service.