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Enhancing AI Precision for Plausible Explanations and Uncertainty Assessment

Although today’s artificial intelligence systems possess immense size and capability, they frequently struggle to differentiate between what is real and what is a hallucination. For instance, autonomous driving systems can fatally overlook pedestrians and emergency vehicles positioned directly in their path. Similarly, conversational AI systems confidently fabricate information and often provide inaccurate assessments of their level of uncertainty, particularly after undergoing reinforcement learning.

However, a collaboration between researchers at MIT and the University of California, Berkeley, has yielded a novel approach to constructing advanced AI inference algorithms. This method enables the algorithms to generate multiple plausible explanations for data while also accurately gauging the quality of these explanations.

The newly developed method utilises a mathematical technique called Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). SMC algorithms are commonly used for uncertainty-calibrated AI to propose likely explanations for data and assess their plausibility as more information becomes available.

However, SMC falls short when applied to complex tasks due to the simplicity of generating probable explanations. Particularly in challenging domains like self-driving, where analysing video data, identifying objects, and predicting hidden motion paths are involved, sophisticated algorithms are required to make plausible guesses. Regular SMC cannot support such advanced algorithms.

The newly introduced SMC method with probabilistic program proposals (SMCP3) addresses these limitations. SMCP3 enables more intelligent approaches to generate probable explanations for data, update them based on new information, and accurately estimate their quality. Unlike previous versions of SMC, which only allowed simple strategies with calculable probabilities, SMCP3 allows using any probabilistic program that incorporates random choices. This flexibility enables sophisticated guessing procedures with multiple stages, overcoming the previous restriction.

The research paper on SMCP3 demonstrates that employing advanced proposal procedures can enhance the precision of AI systems in tracking 3D objects, analysing data, and improving the algorithms’ estimations of data likelihood. Previous studies conducted by MIT and other institutions have revealed that these estimations can be utilised to infer the effectiveness of an inference algorithm in explaining data compared to an idealised Bayesian reasoner.

George Matheos, the first co-author of the paper and soon-to-be MIT EECS PhD student, expressed great enthusiasm for SMCP3’s ability to enable the practical application of well-established, uncertainty-calibrated algorithms in complex problem scenarios where previous versions of SMC were ineffective.

Today, many new algorithms propose explanations based on data but often lack uncertainty calibration and fail to consider alternatives or assess their explanations. SMCP3 offers the potential to use these algorithms more effectively by incorporating uncertainty calibration, ensuring trustworthy AI systems for reliable and safe decision-making.

Vikash Mansinghka, the paper’s Senior Author, further explains, “Monte Carlo methods have been fundamental in computing and artificial intelligence since the advent of electronic computers.” However, designing and implementing them has always been challenging, requiring manual derivation of mathematical equations and awareness of intricate mathematical constraints. SMCP3 automates these complex mathematical aspects while expanding the range of possible designs.

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Qlik’s vision is a data-literate world, where everyone can use data and analytics to improve decision-making and solve their most challenging problems. A private company, Qlik offers real-time data integration and analytics solutions, powered by Qlik Cloud, to close the gaps between data, insights and action. By transforming data into Active Intelligence, businesses can drive better decisions, improve revenue and profitability, and optimize customer relationships. Qlik serves more than 38,000 active customers in over 100 countries.

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As a Titanium Black Partner of Dell Technologies, CTC Global Singapore boasts unparalleled access to resources.

Established in 1972, we bring 52 years of experience to the table, solidifying our position as a leading IT solutions provider in Singapore. With over 300 qualified IT professionals, we are dedicated to delivering integrated solutions that empower your organization in key areas such as Automation & AI, Cyber Security, App Modernization & Data Analytics, Enterprise Cloud Infrastructure, Workplace Modernization and Professional Services.

Renowned for our consulting expertise and delivering expert IT solutions, CTC Global Singapore has become the preferred IT outsourcing partner for businesses across Singapore.

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Planview has one mission: to build the future of connected work. Our solutions enable organizations to connect the business from ideas to impact, empowering companies to accelerate the achievement of what matters most. Planview’s full spectrum of Portfolio Management and Work Management solutions creates an organizational focus on the strategic outcomes that matter and empowers teams to deliver their best work, no matter how they work. The comprehensive Planview platform and enterprise success model enables customers to deliver innovative, competitive products, services, and customer experiences. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, with locations around the world, Planview has more than 1,300 employees supporting 4,500 customers and 2.6 million users worldwide. For more information, visit www.planview.com.

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SIRIM is a premier industrial research and technology organisation in Malaysia, wholly-owned by the Minister​ of Finance Incorporated. With over forty years of experience and expertise, SIRIM is mandated as the machinery for research and technology development, and the national champion of quality. SIRIM has always played a major role in the development of the country’s private sector. By tapping into our expertise and knowledge base, we focus on developing new technologies and improvements in the manufacturing, technology and services sectors. We nurture Small Medium Enterprises (SME) growth with solutions for technology penetration and upgrading, making it an ideal technology partner for SMEs.

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HashiCorp provides infrastructure automation software for multi-cloud environments, enabling enterprises to unlock a common cloud operating model to provision, secure, connect, and run any application on any infrastructure. HashiCorp tools allow organizations to deliver applications faster by helping enterprises transition from manual processes and ITIL practices to self-service automation and DevOps practices. 

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IBM is a leading global hybrid cloud and AI, and consulting services provider, helping clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Nearly 3,800 government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications and healthcare rely on IBM’s hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to affect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently, and securely. IBM’s breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and business services deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM’s legendary commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity, and service. For more information, visit www.ibm.com