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This summer, approximately half of the world’s population faced an unprecedented wave of extreme heat. It underscores the ever-pressing issue of climate change. Based on a recent nonprofit organisation on climate science analysis, almost 3.8 billion individuals worldwide were exposed to excessive heat exacerbated by human-induced climate change. This statistic highlights the need for immediate action in combating climate-related challenges and their consequences.
In the face of concerns regarding extreme heatwaves, particularly in regions with traditionally mild summers, the United States has made a recommendation. This entails the utilisation of climate simulation models that incorporate an innovative computational approach known as “ensemble boosting.” This cutting-edge technique can save tens of thousands of lives and enhance the preparedness for extreme heat events.
The concept of ensemble boosting revolves around the idea of efficiency and precision. By employing computationally efficient modelling, scientists can simulate various extreme yet plausible heatwaves while bypassing the need for extensive calculations on large supercomputers. The results of this research were led by scientists supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, primarily based at Cornell University, in collaboration with various research institutions.
The analysis conducted by a climate science non-profit organisation during this year’s Northern Hemisphere summer unveiled some alarming facts about the extent of extreme heat. About 48% of the global population endured a minimum of 30 days of extreme heat, with a likelihood increased by at least three times due to climate change. What’s even more concerning is that over 1.5 billion individuals experienced such extreme heat levels for the entire summer, emphasising the gravity of the issue.
Many affected populations were in regions closer to the equator, such as the Caribbean, northern Africa, and Southeast Asia. This geographical pattern reinforces the disproportionate impact of climate change on communities that are often more vulnerable due to socioeconomic factors and limited access to resources. The consequences of extreme heatwaves are far-reaching, affecting human health, agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
Ensemble boosting, an approach to modelling, holds great promise in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. This technique operates by taking the most extreme heat events identified in existing computer climate models and re-running them with slight variations in initial conditions. Similar to the butterfly effect, these variations allow scientists to explore the upper bounds of what extreme events climate models can predict.
Angeline Pendergrass, a co-author of the study from Cornell University, emphasised the computational affordability of ensemble boosting. In contrast to traditional climate model simulations that demand substantial computing resources, this approach provides an efficient means to predict extreme heat events. Its primary goal is to delineate the limits of what climate models can anticipate regarding extreme events.
While meteorological models can offer accurate short-term forecasts, typically up to seven days in advance, they may not provide the lead time necessary to organise cooling shelters for thousands of people without air conditioning access. Effective preparation for extreme heatwaves requires long-term municipal planning, where ensemble boosting can play a pivotal role.
Ensemble boosting’s worst-case scenario model for future decades offers valuable insights for municipalities, helping them better understand the potential consequences of climate change. This knowledge enables local authorities to develop strategies for safeguarding their communities, particularly those at risk. By enhancing the understanding of extreme heat events and their potential impact, this innovative approach equips people to face the threats of climate change with greater resilience and preparedness. It is a testament to human ingenuity and scientific innovation in the fight against the growing menace of extreme heatwaves.
