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AI/ML Model to Predict Monsoon Rainfall in India

A cutting-edge artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model for predicting monsoon rainfall has been developed through a collaborative effort between the Department of Science and Technology Centre of Excellence in Climate Modeling at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi (IIT-Delhi), the Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT-Delhi), and universities in the United States and Japan.

According to the research team, the AI/ML model they developed has predicted an All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) of approximately 790mm for the upcoming monsoon season. This prediction suggests that the country can expect a normal monsoon this year. This information can be valuable for various sectors that rely on monsoon rainfall, such as agriculture and water resource management.

The prediction is made using a training process that incorporated historical AISMR data, the Niño3.4 index data, and categorical Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) data spanning the period from 1901 to 2001. The model has exhibited superior performance compared to the current physical models employed for monsoon predictions in the country. It has achieved an impressive forecast success rate of 61.9% during the test period from 2002 to 2022. The success rate is determined by assessing whether the model can predict the AISMR within a range of +/-5% of the actual values observed each year.

The model can make forecasts several months in advance, contingent upon the availability of the Niño3.4 index and IOD forecasts. These inputs can be continuously monitored and updated to reflect their evolving conditions. Thus, the data-driven models are flexible to inputs and can better capture the nonlinear relations among the monsoon drivers, all while being less computationally intensive.

Compared to the resource-intensive process associated with traditional physical models, a small team of individuals running the ML models on a personal computer can deliver a more precise monsoon rainfall forecast.

The significance of this study extends to the entire country, as the availability of accurate monsoon forecasts well in advance plays a crucial role in making critical decisions across multiple socioeconomic sectors. Accurate monsoon predictions enable effective planning in agriculture, the efficient management of energy resources, optimal utilisation of water resources, proactive measures in disaster management, and the ability to address health-related concerns. The data-driven techniques developed in this study will be further extended to provide state-wise monsoon rainfall predictions, enhancing their usefulness for regional applications.

Rainfall erosivity, which represents the potential of rain to cause soil degradation, is a significant contributor to the erosion-induced by water in India. Approximately 68.4% of the total eroded soil in the country is affected by erosion induced by water.

Globally, soil erosion caused by rainfall is recognised as a significant environmental challenge. However, traditional assessments of rainfall erosivity in India are often limited to specific catchments or regions, which hinders a comprehensive evaluation of this phenomenon for a country as geographically diverse as India, with varying climate properties.

Last year, a study carried out at IIT-Delhi resulted in the first-ever pan-India assessment of rainfall erosivity. The researchers employed multiple national and global gridded precipitation datasets, including the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) at an hourly temporal scale, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on a daily scale, and the Global Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) on a daily scale. By using these datasets, the team created a high-resolution map that identifies areas in India prone to erosion caused by rainfall.

The study is a step toward building a national-scale soil erosion model for India. The map will enable watershed managers to identify rainfall erosivity potential at diverse locations and plan, prioritise, and implement essential watershed development activities to minimise soil erosion.

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Qlik’s vision is a data-literate world, where everyone can use data and analytics to improve decision-making and solve their most challenging problems. A private company, Qlik offers real-time data integration and analytics solutions, powered by Qlik Cloud, to close the gaps between data, insights and action. By transforming data into Active Intelligence, businesses can drive better decisions, improve revenue and profitability, and optimize customer relationships. Qlik serves more than 38,000 active customers in over 100 countries.

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CTC Global Singapore, a premier end-to-end IT solutions provider, is a fully owned subsidiary of ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation (CTC) and ITOCHU Corporation.

Since 1972, CTC has established itself as one of the country’s top IT solutions providers. With 50 years of experience, headed by an experienced management team and staffed by over 200 qualified IT professionals, we support organizations with integrated IT solutions expertise in Autonomous IT, Cyber Security, Digital Transformation, Enterprise Cloud Infrastructure, Workplace Modernization and Professional Services.

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Planview has one mission: to build the future of connected work. Our solutions enable organizations to connect the business from ideas to impact, empowering companies to accelerate the achievement of what matters most. Planview’s full spectrum of Portfolio Management and Work Management solutions creates an organizational focus on the strategic outcomes that matter and empowers teams to deliver their best work, no matter how they work. The comprehensive Planview platform and enterprise success model enables customers to deliver innovative, competitive products, services, and customer experiences. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, with locations around the world, Planview has more than 1,300 employees supporting 4,500 customers and 2.6 million users worldwide. For more information, visit www.planview.com.

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SIRIM is a premier industrial research and technology organisation in Malaysia, wholly-owned by the Minister​ of Finance Incorporated. With over forty years of experience and expertise, SIRIM is mandated as the machinery for research and technology development, and the national champion of quality. SIRIM has always played a major role in the development of the country’s private sector. By tapping into our expertise and knowledge base, we focus on developing new technologies and improvements in the manufacturing, technology and services sectors. We nurture Small Medium Enterprises (SME) growth with solutions for technology penetration and upgrading, making it an ideal technology partner for SMEs.

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HashiCorp provides infrastructure automation software for multi-cloud environments, enabling enterprises to unlock a common cloud operating model to provision, secure, connect, and run any application on any infrastructure. HashiCorp tools allow organizations to deliver applications faster by helping enterprises transition from manual processes and ITIL practices to self-service automation and DevOps practices. 

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IBM is a leading global hybrid cloud and AI, and business services provider. We help clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Nearly 3,000 government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications and healthcare rely on IBM’s hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to affect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently and securely. IBM’s breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions and business services deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM’s legendary commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity and service.